That's an amazing forecast, as usual! To put more context, I work in the financial markets and some instruments enable to hedge some weather catastrophe risk via insurance - some of these forward valuations take into account forecasts such as the ENSO one.

It's the first time I can remember that there is such a strong consensus on a transition period (with quite high odds we will end up with La Niña by September). It looks like the tail risk is heavily weighed up on El Niño or the neutral period being longer than expected. Not posing the results into question, i.e., La Niña is the most likely event, but the current forecasts make hedging against an El Niño scenario very cheap.