Hi Bob, yes, I would categorize the current intensity as weak, but I also would agree with your other point raised by another scientist. When looking at the current tropical rainfall anomalies and at the projected impacts on the hemispheric atmospheric circulation, I believe that the expected impacts may be on the moderate side even if the event remains weak based on tropical sea surface temperatures alone (but expected impacts aren't always actual impacts, as I wrote about last year). Overall, I would agree that decadal variations in the tropical sea surface temperatures may be helping La Ninas "punch above their weight," which may relate to a study I led a couple years ago.