Thank you very much for the updates . The model estimates for the monthly sea surface temperatures  show that at least  40% of the models signal to stronger La-nina than a  moderate one , at least three of the models appear to be outliers with extreme negative sea surface temperature estimates for the months November-January, should this signal a strong lanina rather a moderate one , especially the polar vortex this year had shown  early winter behaviors in November particularly in lower latitudes . I would weigh the three extreme model estimates to have a significant negative effect on the deflection of sea-surface temperatures next month particularly most of the models show below -1 deflections ?  This is an intuitive guess however  that may have explanation.  I had hoped the comment would allow figure attachment to make better illustration . 

Above all, thank you again & wishing you and everyone else a happy and safe winter . 

BR

Mohamed Alkhateeb

The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.