Thank you very much for the updates . There are small chances ( roughly 1/3 =33.3%) of strong lanina happening according to the statistical models and that is clear, but the seasonal forecast 95% confidence interval shows that the chances expand between October-January that the enso peak anomalies go below -1 in the attached figure and persistently for like 8 weeks period. what are the chances that we get consecutive laninas (>4 Ninas) like what happened between 1970-1976, there were several small to strong successive lanina's that tookplace, and i am not certain what could explain that succession in the 1970's. The tropical region had been affected by many antarctic cold blasts particulary Brazil and Argentina and even parts of south Australia had cold blasts, any interacted effects for those on underwater cooling?

Thank you again.
BR
Mohamed