Hi Hal, we've been trying to avoid using too much "technical mumbo jumbo" in our explanations as we know scientific jargon can be too dense. If you are actually curious about how our probabilistic forecasts perform, we provide two sites where you can look at the numbers: one and two. And if you'd like an explainer on how to properly verify our forecasts to see if they truly are accurate or not, I wrote a three part series on just that topic. Part one, part two and part three.