There are so many El Ninos! To which area are you referring? In the northern Pacific, there are southern and north-western US, then there are the "Dipoles", and in the southern Pacific (just) is the - and only in my eyes - original El Nino. (I'm from Australia where they use Queensland and dry weather - but that's a bit bizarre!) Sticking with the original - and this varies over a length of 1000s of km - around Xmas (hence the name) we get warm, smelly, saline ocean (usually starting west of Galapagos) dead fish, blackened fishing boats and huge rains in the normally dry Peru. What criteria apply to this "El Nino"? For example, is it wet in Peru? If one investigates each area individually, one just might find the cause for that area, and then spread that understanding to each of the others. Putting them all together is just asking for trouble – which explains why the current “theory” is unsuccessful, containing as it does unexplained events. For instance, why does the westward wind die down?