RE: Predicting ENSO
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Hi, I'm not sure what you mean by poor accuracy... can you give an example? We measure the accuracy of our forecasts in several different ways, so I might be able to comment on it if you can give me insight into which event you were looking at. For example, I consider our forecasts of the recent 2015-16 El Nino and subsequent 2016-17 La Nina to be pretty good in the sense that we knew the wintertime state of ENSO ~6 months in advance. For the most recent 2017-18 La Nina we issued a La Nina watch (possibly arrival of La Nina) in September 2017 and then declared its onset in November 2017.