Modeling study based on Hurricane Harvey improves flooding predictions

Hurricane Harvey water rescues in Houston, August 27, 2017. Credit: David J. Phillip/Associated Press via NOAA NWS/NHC

The exacerbated effects of hurricane induced flooding due to climate change are not fully understood in relation to coastal areas and sea level rise. A new study, partially funded by the Climate Program Office’s Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program, applies a new modeling approach to evaluate watershed flooding using 2017 Hurricane Harvey as a case study. Researchers from Texas A&M University, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, University of Zaragoza, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory demonstrate that rainfall in the southern Houston area would increase by about 16% for each degree of warming over the Gulf of Mexico. The results, published in the Journal of Hydrology, show the area of land experiencing flooding will increase by about 20% by the 2090’s and floods will be deeper and longer lasting.

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